Target price : Bt0.85
Recommendation : BUY
Closing Price (24 April 09) : Bt0.72
1Q09 net loss to narrow 7.42% YoY
- Subway operator BMCL reported that its average daily ridership and fare box revenue rose 1.23% and 5.31% YoY respectively in 1Q09. On this basis, we forecast average daily passenger revenue to grow by
7.37% in 1Q09. Total revenue is predicted to increase 7.93%. We also expect BMCL's 1Q09 net loss to narrow 7.42% YoY to Bt331.62m on the back of falling SG&A and financial expenses though costs are forecast to rise but at a slower rate than revenue.
- We retain our forecast that BMCL will post a 2009 net loss of Bt1,298.92m. Our DCF-based price target is unchanged at Bt0.85/share. We maintain a TRADING BUY recommendation on BMCL in view of its continued losses.
Mar ridership numbers up 4.42% YoY; 1Q09 passenger traffic up 1.23% YoY
Subway operator BMCL reported that average daily ridership rose 4.42% YoY to 189,000 passengers in Mar 2009 and fare box revenue upped 7.08% YoY to a daily average of Bt22.83 per trip thanks to fare increases from Bt15-Bt39 to Bt16-Bt41 and a fare hike for 30-day passes from Bt950 to Bt1,000. In 1Q09, average passenger traffic was up 1.23% YoY to 174,000/day and fare box revenue leapt 5.31% YoY to a daily average of Bt22.47 per trip. Higher fare box revenue and rising passenger volume pulled passenger revenues in 1Q09 up 7.84% to an average of Bt3.95m per day.
1Q09 net loss to narrow 7.42% YoY
Based on the above passenger traffic and fare box revenue figures, we expect 1Q09 passenger revenues to grow 7.37% YoY to an average of Bt359.50m per day and revenues from commercial developments are forecast to rise 11.78% YoY to Bt52.73m. Total revenue for the quarter is estimated at Bt412.23m, up 7.93%. Total costs are predicted to climb 3.71% driven by rising costs of commercial developments and higher project cost write-offs. Administrative expenses are projected to drop 11.85% and financial expenses are expected to fall 1.95%. Interest expenses should slip 2.26% as a result of a decline in average MLR to 6.83% in 1Q09 from 7.125% in 1Q08. On this basis, we expect BMCL's 1Q09 net loss to shrink 7.42% YoY and 6.11% QoQ to Bt331.62m.
2009 estimates unchanged
We retain our forecast that 2009 total revenue will come in at Bt1,773.56m. We also expect BMCL's 2009 net loss to narrow 10.99% YoY to Bt1,298.92m. Our price target of Bt0.85/share is DCF-based, assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.50%. We maintain a TRADING BUY recommendation on BMCL in view of its continued losses.
By Phillip Securities (Thailand) Plc. on Apr 27, 2009
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